Old School Thinking Wins as Miguel Cabrera Beats out Mike Trout for AL MVP

One of the most interesting debates in sports for the past few years has finally ended as Miguel Cabrera, the first Triple Crown winner for batting since 1967, edged out rookie phenomenon Mike Trout as the American League’s Most Valuable Player.

For Cabrera, it’s his fourth straight season with over 30 HRs, 100 RBIs and a batting average over .320.

For Trout, he enjoyed arguably the greatest season by a rookie in MLB history. He is the first rookie ever to hit over 30 HRs and steal over 40 bases.

For many, not only was this a battle between two of the game’s most talented players, it was a struggle between two distinct schools of thought in baseball analysis.

Supporting Cabrera were the old school thinkers, who believed the Triple Crown and the fact that the Detroit Tigers went to the playoffs and Los Angeles Angels didn’t were enough to put Miggy over the top.

In the other corner were those who are students in the philosophy of sabremetrics, which showed stats that Trout was the better overall and more valuable player than Cabrera despite the fact that his team missed the playoffs.

No position had won the Triple Crown since Carl Yastrzemski for the 1967 American League Champion Boston Red Sox. The Tigers ended winning the Pennant this year as well before getting swept by the San Francisco Giants.

The Triple Crown is absolutely nothing to not consider when voting for these awards. It is one of the rarest feats in all of sports, comparable to winning the Triple Crown in horse racing or passing for over 5,000 yards in the NFL.

At the same time, only one player hit over 30 HRs, stole over 45 bases, and score over 125 runs. His name is Mike Trout.

To be fair to Trout when talking about team, he played in a much tougher division and the Angels still won more games than Detroit. The Tigers won the worst division in baseball.

According to fangraphs.com, Trout was easily the most irreplaceable player in baseball, ranking in at 10.0 WAR. In the AL, Robinson Cano also had a higher WAR.

Wins above replacement is one of many attempts at trying to estimate the true value of a player. It factors in everything: Hitting, base-running, and fielding. Trout does all of those very well, stealing 49 bases (leading the majors) and having an 11.0 UZR/150, one of the best among AL OFs.

Trout did this at 20 years old. As a rookie.

Cabrera on the other hand, is a non factor on the base paths and was the worst defensive third baseman in baseball, dead last in UZR/150 at -11.2.

But clearly, the voters decided that the hype surrounding the Triple Crown as well as the Tigers making the playoffs was more than enough to elect Cabrera.

Is there anything wrong with that? Of course not. Team success has always played a role in these awards. The Triple Crown really could not have been ignored.

Miguel Cabrera is the American League MVP, and he deserved it. But Trout’s season made a great case for it. In the end, the old school way of thinking in baseball won, for this year.

Winning the Triple Crown Should Not Make Miguel Cabrera a Guarantee for AL MVP

Hard to believe Miguel Cabrera has been under the radar for much of his career, even ever since he arrived in Detroit in a trade with the Florida Marlins. You could argue he has taken the baton from Albert Pujols as the best right-handed hitter in the game of baseball.

Just 29 years old, Cabrera has over 300 HRs, almost 400 doubles, over 1100 RBIs, almost 1800 base hits. He has compiled a career line of .318/.395/.562/.957 (average, OBP, SLG%, OPS). He won the AL HR title in 2008, the MLB RBI title in 2010, and the MLB batting title last season after swiping it from Adrian Gonzalez who plummeted along with his Red Sox.

This year, he’s having probably one of the greatest seasons ever for a right handed batter. His numbers are at .331/.396/.614/1.010, 169 OPS+, 42 HRs, 133 RBIs, 40 doubles, 194 hits, 360 total bases,

He could become the first hitter in 45 years (Carl Yastrzemski in 1967) to win the fabled Triple Crown. He currently leads the majors in HRs (tied with Josh Hamilton) and RBIs and is .005 from the MLB batting title (still leads the AL by .008). He also leads the majors in slugging percentage, OPS, OPS+, and total bases.

Such ridiculous numbers absolutely warrant the American League Most Valuable Player award, especially with the hype of the Triple Crown Despite the struggles of his team as a whole, the Tigers are still one game behind the White Sox for the AL Central.

However, winning the Triple Crown has not guaranteed the MVP award previously. Most famous is the great Ted Williams, who won the Triple Crown TWICE and finished 2nd in the voting both times. Other Triple Crown winners who did not win the MVP are Joe Medwick in 1937, Lou Gehrig in 1934, and Chuck Klein in 1933.

In fact, many sabremtrics make an argument that the Los Angeles Angels’ 21 year old phenom Mike Trout is more of a deserving candidate for the MVP than Cabrera.

In the age of advanced statistics and analysis through sabremetrics, a historical achievement may not be a guarantee for any award. While the only stats available for voters when the Triple Crown was commonly won for batters were average, hits, homers, RBIs, runs scored, etc, today’s stats have established the fact that RBIs, batting average, and home runs are not the best measurements for a player’s talent and worth.

In fact, many sabremtrics make an argument that the Los Angeles Angels’ 21 year old phenom Mike Trout is more of a deserving candidate for the MVP than Cabrera.

Trout was called up from the minor leagues on April 28 when the Angels, many experts’ sexy pick to win the World Series, were 6-14. Since, the Angels are 78-55 (.586) and are still in the hunt for a wild card spot, and Trout’s emergence has been a huge reason why.

Trout is arguably a better OVERALL player than Cabrera. Trout’s speed makes him a force on the basepaths, leading the majors in stolen bases and runs scored despite being called up at the end of April. He’s 46 for 50 in stolen base attempts. He also has a ton of power for a 21 year old, popping 28 HRs and 25 doubles and six triples. The rest of his numbers are: .323/.394/.554/.949, 167 OPS+, 169 hits, and 129 runs

Cabrera is a very poor defensive player and has costed his team several runs after being moved back to 3B with the signing of Prince Fielder. Trout saves his teams runs with his ridiculous catches that you have seen weekly on SportsCenter.

The sabremetrical argument seems to weigh Trout’s defense and speed highly equally with his offense. Trout leads the entire major leagues in WAR (wins above replacement) at 9.5. It isn’t even close either. The next closest player is Ryan Braun at 7.9 and Cabrera is at 6.9.

Trout also leads the AL with a wRC+ (weighted runs created) of 172. Cabrera is at 169. This statistic quantifies a player’s total offensive value and measures it in runs scored. Cabrera leads the AL in wOBA, (weighted on-base average), which balances the values of different types of base hits. Cabrera is at .421, and Trout is right behind him at .418.

Trout’s defense is also proved to be significantly better than Cabrera’s through sabremetrics. Trout is 2nd in the AL and 4th among all MLB OF in UZR and 2nd in the AL and 8th among all MLB OF in UZR/150. Cabrera is dead last among AL 3B in both categories and second worst among all MLB 3B. Basically, UZR and UZR/150 are estimates of how many runs a player saves or gives up playing their position. Zero is exactly average at the position.

This is a new age of statistical analysis in all of sports, and baseball has the most use and understanding of these “sabremetrics”. Many people in the sport and business of baseball have moved on from using the use of traditional statistics such as HRs, RBIs, average, runs scored, and other counting statistics. The voters also seem to be starting to move on from traditional stats when they selected Mariners right-hander Felix Hernandez as the AL Cy Young award winner despite a dismal 13-12 record on the last place Mariners.

The fact is Mike Trout has been a better and more valuable overall player than Miguel Cabrera has been this year. He does a lot more things than Cabrera does when you’re talking about a combination of hitting, running, and defense.

Many people think because of the month of September Cabrera has had, he should be a slam dunk. However, he entered the month at .329/.393/.591/.983 and Trout was at .335/.399/.580/.979, so it should be a lot closer as they were for the rest of the season.

The rest of the season could very well decide it. Both the Angels and Tigers are looking on the outside of a playoff spot. The Tigers are one game behind the White Sox for the AL Central lead and the Angels, six games better than Detroit, are three back of division rival Oakland in the loss column for the 2nd wild card spot